Market Analysis

Bitcoin bulls set to defend $13K as $450M in BTC futures expire Friday

A total of 62K Bitcoin (BTC) options are set to expire this Friday, and this is equivalent to $830 million in open interest. These massive numbers fail to reflect the fact that 58% of these options are now deemed worthless.

As we approach the expiry date, call (buy) options above the current level begin to depreciate very fast. It is not worth paying $20 for the opportunity to buy BTC at $14.5K on Friday morning. Therefore, rolling options to the next month is not that helpful.

October BTC options pricing. Source: Deribit

With less than 48 hours to October’s expiry, call (buy) options above $14.5K and above face slim odds. The same can be said for the $11.5K put (sell) options which are currently trading below $10 apiece.

Deribit leads with a 70% market share of the options that are still worthy. Currently, there are $134 million worth of call (buy) options from $11.5K to $13.5K, stacked against $45.5 million in put (sell) options from $12.5K to $14.5K. Thus, bulls favor bears by a ratio of 3:1.

Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) holds a 26% market share among the October BTC options that still count. The call (buy) options near the current market level totals $72 million, whereas the put (sell) is less than $1 million. This movement is not unlike past expiries as CME option traders are usually extremely bullish.

Therefore, there’s currently a $160 million imbalance favoring bulls on BTC option markets. This is a relevant number considering the expiry happens at a set time. OKEx and Deribit options and futures are set to expire at 8:00 AM (UTC) on October 30, and the CME a few hours later at 4:00 PM (UTC).